Envision SES Landscape Model

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At the simulation modeling heart of our proposal is Envision, an innovative multi-paradigm modeling framework designed to support analysis of SESs in time and space1, 2 (Figure 1). Fundamental to Envision’s architecture is the concept of “plug-in models” that provide a high degree of modularity, integration, and flexibility in model representations. Envision has been used for integrated modeling of a variety of distinct SESs, e.g., climate impacts on water availability in Oregon3 and Idaho4, agricultural dynamics in Ontario, Canada5, wildfire response to climate and policy in central Oregon2, climate-related coastal community planning6, wildlife and open space planning in Oregon’s Portland Metro area7, climate-fire-development-ecosystem interactions8-11 and ecohydrologic analyses12 in Oregon’s Eugene-Springfield WUI, and others.

Figure 1. The coupled SES simulation modeling system used in Envision, emphasizing full spectrum of coupled submodels.

Citations

  1. Bone, C., et al., A Temporal Variant-Invariant Validation Approach for Agent-based Models of Landscape Dynamics. Transactions in GIS, 2014. 18(2): p. 161-182.
  2. Spies, T.A., et al., Examining fire-prone forest landscapes as coupled human and natural systems. Ecology and Society, 2014. 19(3): p. Article 9.
  3. Jaeger W, et al., Anticipating Water Scarcity with Climate Change in the U.S. Pacific Northwest Using a Landscape Model of a Coupled Natural-Human System. 2014, World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists.
  4. Inouye, A.M., Development of a hydrologic model to explore the impacts of future climate on water resources in the Big Wood Basin, Idaho, in Water Resource Engineering, M.S. Thesis, Editor. 2014, Oregon State University: Corvallis, OR. p. 89.
  5. Waldick, R., et al., Mainstreaming Climate Change: Integrated landscape assessment, decision support process, and toolkit. 2014, International Institute for Sustainable Development. p. 92.
  6. Mills, A.K., Exploring the Impacts of Climate and Management on Coastal Community Vulnerability through Alternative Future Scenarios, in M.S. of Water Resource Engineering Thesis. 2015, Oregon State University: Corvallis, OR.
  7. Penteado, H., Open Space as an Armature for Urban Expansion: A Future Scenarios Study to Assess the Effects of Spatial Concepts on Wildlife Populations. 2012, Ph.D. Dissertation Department of Landscape Architecture, University of Oregon: Eugene, OR. p. 183.
  8. Hulse, D., et al., Anticipating surprise: Using agent-based alternative futures simulation modeling to identify and map surprising fires in the Willamette Valley, Oregon USA. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2016. 156: p. 26-43.
  9. Johnson, B.R., et al., Simulating mechanistic wildfire behavior in response to fine-grained landowner management and climate change. In Preparation.
  10. Johnson, B.R., et al., Climate change and landowner behavior cast uncertainty on wildfire impacts to the wildland-urban interface. In Preparation.
  11. Johnson, B.R., et al., Anticipatory Planning: Imagining the future to alter its course. In Preparation.
  12. Wu, H., et al., A scenario-based approach to integrating flow-ecology research with watershed development planning. Landscape and Urban Planning, 2015. 144: p. 74-89.